Tropical Storm Imelda Forms — But Could It Bring More Than Just Flooding?

Miami, FL – 28 September 2025 - The ninth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season roared to life late Sunday as Tropical Storm Imelda formed just northwest of the central Bahamas, packing 40 mph sustained winds and threatening heavy rain, coastal flooding, and life-threatening surf along the Southeast U.S. coastline this week.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded Tropical Depression Nine to tropical storm status at 11 p.m. EDT, pinpointing Imelda's center at 25.0 degrees north latitude and 77.1 degrees west longitude—about 100 miles east-southeast of Nassau. With a minimum central pressure of 998 millibars, the storm is drifting northward at 9 mph, lashing the Bahamas with tropical-storm-force winds and torrential downpours.

Forecasters expect Imelda to intensify steadily, potentially reaching hurricane strength—winds of at least 74 mph—by late Monday or Tuesday as it brushes the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Its projected path will carry it parallel to Florida's east coast through Monday, slowing near the Carolinas before a sharp eastward turn midweek, steered away from landfall by the influence of distant Hurricane Humberto, a Category 4 behemoth churning in the central Atlantic.

While direct hits appear unlikely, the storm's outer bands could unleash significant hazards. Swells generated by Imelda, amplified by Humberto's powerful waves, are already pounding the Bahamas and will propagate northward, spawning dangerous rip currents and surf conditions from Florida to the Carolinas early this week—potentially eroding beaches and endangering swimmers.

Heavy rainfall looms largest among threats: 4 to 8 inches are forecast across the northwestern Bahamas through Tuesday, with isolated maxima up to 10 inches, fueling flash floods, urban inundation, and possible mudslides in Cuba's higher terrain. Closer to home, 2 to 4 inches—locally 6 inches—could drench coastal South Carolina and southeast North Carolina, exacerbating river flooding when stalled fronts stall the moisture. Eastern Cuba faces 2 to 4 inches.

Storm surge risks are modest but notable: 1 to 3 feet above normal tides in the Bahamas' windward areas, accompanied by large breaking waves; along the U.S. Southeast, minor coastal flooding of 1 to 2 feet is possible from Florida's Volusia/Brevard County line northward to South Carolina's South Santee River.

A tropical storm warning blankets the central and northwestern Bahamas, including New Providence, Grand Bahama, and the Abacos, where gusts could top 50 mph. A tropical storm watch covers Florida's east coast from the Palm Beach-Martin County line to the Flagler-Volusia County line, urging preparations for gusty winds and isolated power outages.

Officials are mobilizing. South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, marking the one-year anniversary of Hurricane Helene's devastation, issued no evacuations but warned of "high winds and water" and activated the State Emergency Operations Center. North Carolina and Charleston declared states of emergency, deploying pumps and clearing drains. "We're better prepared this time, but Mother Nature always has the last word," McMaster said in a briefing.

In the Bahamas, where Imelda is already disrupting travel and power, Prime Minister Philip Davis urged residents to shelter in place. "This storm tests our resilience once more," he posted on social media.

Imelda joins a hyperactive season, with Humberto—now a Category 4 with 140 mph winds—posing no U.S. threat but underscoring the Atlantic's volatility. The NHC's five-day outlook shows Imelda receding harmlessly into the open ocean by Thursday, sparing major disruptions but serving as a stark reminder of autumn's perils.

Residents from Miami to Myrtle Beach are heeding calls to secure outdoor items, avoid beaches, and monitor updates. As the storm churns northward, the focus shifts to its fringes—where even a glancing blow can flood streets and swell seas.