Hurricane Center Says Medium Chance For Tropical Depression

The tropical outlook as of 8 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 14, 2025. (NHC)

Miami, FL – September 14, 2025The Atlantic hurricane season, already forecasted to be above-normal, may soon see its next chapter unfold as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) highlights a tropical wave off Africa's west coast with a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression by mid-to-late next week. The system, currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the eastern tropical Atlantic, faces initial hurdles from dry, stable air but could organize as it drifts west-northwestward at 10-15 mph, potentially becoming the season's fifth named storm—Gabrielle—if it strengthens further.

In its latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 2:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, the NHC assessed the formation odds as low—near 0%—through the next 48 hours, but rising to a medium 40% over the following seven days as environmental conditions improve. Dry Saharan air and stable atmospheric layers are expected to suppress activity for the next couple of days, but gradual organization is anticipated thereafter, with the disturbance potentially reaching the central tropical Atlantic by the latter part of the week.

This comes amid an unusually quiet start to September, the statistical peak of the season, with only four named storms so far in 2025—well below the expected 13-18 for the full season according to NOAA's updated outlook. Factors like an "Atlantic Niña"—a pool of cooler waters off Africa's coast—and persistent wind shear have stifled early development, but forecasters note emerging signals of a shift, including a northward-moving Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that could usher in more favorable conditions for homegrown storms in the Caribbean and Gulf of America.

"While the main development region remains suppressed for now, this wave has the ingredients to spin up once it clears the dry air," said NHC senior hurricane specialist Robbie Berg. The system, located near 37°W from 02°N to 20°N and moving westward at 11-17 mph, poses no immediate threat to land but could approach the Lesser Antilles by the following weekend if it intensifies.

Key System Details	Value
Current Location	Eastern Tropical Atlantic (near 37°W, 02°N-20°N)
Movement	West-northwest at 10-15 mph
Formation Chance (48 hrs)	Near 0% (Low)
Formation Chance (7 days)	40% (Medium)
Potential Name	Gabrielle (if it becomes a tropical storm)
Seasonal Context	4 named storms so far; 13-18 expected total

Broader forecasts from Colorado State University and NOAA emphasize that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pulse of enhanced tropical weather, could boost activity across the Western Hemisphere and Africa, historically linked to above-average hurricane counts. Warm sea surface temperatures—some nearing 90°F in the Gulf—further heighten rapid intensification risks once shear wanes next week.

Residents along the U.S. East Coast, Florida, and Texas are urged to monitor updates, as models suggest a possible northward recurvature if the system develops, though long-range tracks remain uncertain. With the NHC extending its advisory lead time to 72 hours for potential impacts, communities have extra breathing room to prepare. For now, the Atlantic slumbers, but this tropical whisper could herald a busier stretch ahead.