Trump and Democrats Walk Away Without a Deal — Is a US Shutdown Inevitable?

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Washington, D.C. – 29 September 2025 - President Donald Trump and top Democratic congressional leaders emerged from a tense White House meeting Sunday evening without a breakthrough, inching the U.S. closer to a government shutdown at midnight on September 30 as fiscal year 2025 expires without a funding agreement.

The roughly 90-minute session, attended by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and other key figures, focused on a short-term continuing resolution (CR) to avert the closure but dissolved amid partisan finger-pointing over spending priorities and debt ceiling hikes.Trump, flanked by Vice President JD Vance and GOP leaders, reiterated threats to fire thousands of federal workers if Democrats block his demands, while Jeffries accused the administration of using the crisis to "bully" vulnerable programs.

"We laid out our position clearly: No shutdown threats, no poison pills in the bill," Schumer told reporters outside the West Wing, emphasizing Democrats' insistence on protecting Social Security, veterans' benefits, and nutrition aid.Trump, posting on Truth Social moments after, blasted the opposition as "radical left obstructionists" willing to "risk everything for open borders and woke spending."

At stake is roughly $1.7 trillion in discretionary spending for fiscal year 2026, with Congress having passed zero of the 12 required appropriations bills.Republicans, holding slim majorities in both chambers, advanced a CR last week to extend funding through November 21 at current 2025 levels—totaling about $1.6 trillion—but it included cuts to non-defense discretionary programs by 1% and excluded a $500 billion debt limit increase sought by Democrats.The impasse echoes past shutdowns, like the 35-day 2018-2019 stalemate that cost the economy $11 billion in lost output, including $3 billion never recovered, per Congressional Budget Office estimates.

A closure would furlough up to 2 million federal employees—about 40% of the civilian workforce—and halt non-essential services, from national parks to IRS processing.The Office of Management and Budget has directed agencies to prepare for "extensive employee layoffs," with impacts rippling to contractors and families reliant on programs like SNAP (serving 42 million) and Head Start (enrolling 1 million children).Economists warn of broader fallout: Delayed federal payments could shave 0.2% off GDP growth in Q4 2025, exacerbating inflation pressures already at 2.5% annually.

Vance, speaking to NBC News post-meeting, predicted a "likely" shutdown, framing it as Democrats' refusal to compromise on border security funding.The White House countered Democratic "shutdown push" rhetoric by highlighting a proposed "Preventing Government Shutdowns Act" for automatic CRs, but it stalled in committee.

With the House slated to reconvene Monday and the Senate in a rare Sunday session, frantic negotiations could yield a last-minute patch. Yet analysts see slim odds: A CNN poll shows 58% of Americans blaming both parties equally, but independents—key to midterms—tilting toward Democrats by 12 points on shutdown responsibility.

As clocks tick toward October 1, the brinkmanship tests Trump's deal-making prowess against a divided Congress, with real pain looming for millions if talks collapse.